Knowland’s Meeting Recovery Forecast Q2 Update Reflects Stronger than Expected Performance

Q2 performance fuels adjusted forecast to reach full market recovery in 2023.
Michal Christine Escobar
Senior Editor, Hotels
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chart from Knowland

Knowland, a provider of data-as-a-service insights on meetings and events for hospitality, released the quarterly update to its U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) and associated Top 25 U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF25) showing improved projected performance with a goal of providing the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years. Click here to view the most current forecasts.

Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland, said: “Each month of the second quarter realized significant growth. With the exception of a few markets, growth exceeded predictions resulting in a shift in the MRF. Even with ongoing concerns about the economy and COVID variants, the industry is rebounding in an unprecedented way. In Q1, U.S meetings and events volume was flat with the forecast while Q2 overperformed by 25.8 percent more actualized meetings and events. Corporate events are leading the charge in this recovery with several markets already recovered at more than 90 percent of 2019 levels in this segment.

Knowland’s forecasts provide an overview of how the U.S. as a whole and the Top 25 Markets, specifically, will move through recovery. Both the overall U.S. and the Top 25 Markets realized a significant shift in performance. A breakdown of the details is below:

  • U.S. Markets Recovery Forecast update - Since the forecast in April, the outlook for the U.S. has been raised from 58.3 percent recovery by the end of 2022 to 72.1 percent recovery. Meeting levels will recover to 106.3 percent of 2019 levels in 2023 and 115.7 percent in 2024.
  • Top 25 Markets Recovery Forecast update – For eleven markets, the recovery forecast improved from the last projection in April 2022, including Anaheim, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Detroit, Nashville, New Orleans, Oahu Island, Orlando, San Diego, and Seattle. In four markets, the recovery forecast was lowered including Houston, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington DC. The remaining Top 25 markets are unchanged from February.
    • Recovery by the end of 2022: Four markets will be fully recovered by the end of 2022: Phoenix, Dallas, Tampa, and Nashville. Dallas and Nashville are new additions to this list from April. Three markets will be above 80 percent recovery: Atlanta, Anaheim, and Miami. Anaheim is a new entry into this category with this updated forecast. Fourteen markets will be between 50 and 80 percent recovery. Only Norfolk, Oahu Island, Philadelphia, and Seattle are forecasted to be less than 50 percent recovered by the end of 2022. Norfolk, Philadelphia, and Seattle shifted into this category while Detroit and Chicago moved into the 50-80 percent category.
    • Significant recovery in 2023: An additional seven markets will achieve 100 percent or greater recovery including Anaheim, Denver, Miami, San Diego, Washington DC, Atlanta, and New Orleans. Six will reach 90 percent or better recovery: Boston, San Francisco, Houston, New York, Orlando, and Chicago. The remaining markets will fall between 75 and 90 percent recovery.
    • Closer to normal in 2024: 23 of the 25 markets will achieve 100 percent or greater recovery by 2024. Philadelphia and Detroit will achieve 90 or better percent recovery during 2024.

About the MRF and associated MRF25: The MRF demonstrates projected industry recovery patterns and is based on Knowland’s proprietary data and regression models leveraging almost 20 million global events over the last 15 years. The MRF25 was added in February 2022 to provide the capability to search industry recovery patterns for the Top 25 U.S. Markets. The forecast uses a natural recovery model, assuming historic seasonal patterns without major market disruption, to index the recapture of meeting activity compared to baseline levels from 2019. By comparing past data to evolving data trends, hoteliers can better understand market-relevant changes–and their implications–as individual markets move into 2022 and beyond.

Top 25 Group Markets: Anaheim, Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, Nashville, New Orleans, New York, Norfolk, Oahu Island, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa, and Washington DC.