Leveraging 15-plus years of historical meetings and events data, Knowland releases a quarterly U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast to help hoteliers better anticipate and plan forward-looking group business.
Knowland,a provider of data-as-a-service insights on meetings and events for hospitality, released a U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) to provide the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years. The company will update the model quarterly and the data will be available for anyone to view online. To see the most current projections, visit https://www.knowland.com/blog/.
The MRF demonstrates projected industry recovery patterns and is based on Knowland’s proprietary data and regression models leveraging almost 20 million global events over the last 15 years. The forecast uses a natural recovery model, assuming historic seasonal patterns without major market disruption, to index the recapture of meeting activity compared to baseline levels from 2019. By comparing past data to evolving data trends, hoteliers can better understand relevant changes– and their implications – as the market moves into 2022 and beyond.
Natural recovery model predicts future event activity–The MRF provides ongoing, return-to-normal forecasts to create seasonal velocity metrics over a three-year period to predict when event activity levels will return to 2019 levels. In the current model, Knowland is forecasting by the end of 2021, events will have recovered 28 percent of 2019’s baseline year demand. However, for the period of September – December of 2021, that recovery will be at 49 percent, a reflection of the significant uptake in events in the last quarter of the year.
Projected recovery patterns provide insight beyond ADR – As the world begins to return to normal, it is important for hoteliers to gain insight into group activity. While STR forecasts Occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR, Knowland takes it a step further by forecasting meetings and events activity, which provides insight for sales staffing, operational planning, and overall growth strategies. Going forward, the forecasted recovery capture is indexed as follows:
By the end of 2022, we are forecasting 58.3 percent recovery.
By the end of 2023, we are forecasting 86.9 percent recovery. However, by August 2023, Knowland forecasts that individual months will be back to normal levels.
By the end of 2024, Knowland forecasts 109.8 percent recovery.
Data demonstrates growth to aid operational efficiencies – Knowland’s MRF provides the percentage of demand growth as the industry moves into recovery. Hoteliers can look to the forecast as an additional tool to aid in a variety of operational decisions. The data informs staffing for front desk and housekeeping teams as well as sales teams as they anticipate the return of seasonal demand. Plus, owners and asset managers can leverage the forecast to optimize their investment in both above property and property level sales by knowing when to begin pre-selling to maximize share capture.
Jeff Bzdawka, chief executive officer, Knowland, said: “Knowland’s Meetings Recovery Forecast model is the foundation for future predictive forecasting. It applies the intelligence of machine learning to Knowland’s expanding meetings and events database to generate thoughtful, actionable AI-driven insights for hotels on the regional, local and even property levels.”
Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland, said: “As we continue to increase our data sources, we have an even better view of the potential recovery path for hoteliers. Data science allows us to compare years of historical seasonal velocity to our latest data models to help hoteliers understand how to move forward into a more profitable future. The Meetings Recovery Forecast offers the hospitality industry guidance on when to start rebuilding sales staff, how to plan for upcoming seasonal variances, and basically – when to turn your re-vamped sales engine back on.”