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04/20/2022

Knowland Issues Quarterly Event Activity Forecast

The U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast remains stable and still on track with March exceeding recovery targets and some markets at or near recovery by end of 2022.
Michal Christine Escobar
Senior Editor (Hotels)
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Knowland, a provider of data-as-a-service insights on meetings and events for hospitality, released an update to its U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF) and associated Top 25 U.S. Meetings Recovery Forecast (MRF25) to provide the hospitality industry with predictive insights into event recovery over the next three years.  Click here to view the most current forecasts.

Kristi White, chief product officer, Knowland, said: “While Omicron created a minor setback in January the next two months stabilized the performance of the quarter. We anticipate the second quarter of the year will continue this pace of recovery and potentially accelerate the process. From the MRF25 recovery perspective, there was volatility among the markets. However, several markets managed to improve their recovery outlook.

Even those markets with lowered forecasts saw significant upticks in March which was almost enough to eliminate the need for a lowered forecast. The main difference in the markets where the forecast was raised is that they experienced minimal dips in January, so the February and March rebound propelled them even higher.”

Knowland’s forecasts provide an overview of how the U.S. as a whole and the Top 25 Markets, specifically, will move through recovery. Since the forecast in February, the outlook for the U.S. is unchanged. However, there has been a shift in performance across some of the Top 25 Markets. A breakdown of the details is below:

 

  • MRF Q1 recovery metrics – Omicron concerns caused a mild cooling isolated to January, while February met recovery targets. Month-over-month growth was even stronger than anticipated because of the lackluster January performance. March exceeded recovery targets and the stronger forecasted rebound combined with February performance stabilized the forecast for the U.S. as a whole.
  • Top 25 Markets Recovery Forecast update – For five markets the recovery forecast improved from the last forecast in February 2022, including Anaheim, Miami, Nashville, Tampa, and Washington, D.C. In ten markets the recovery forecast was lowered including Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, Oahu Island, Orlando, San Francisco, and Seattle. The remaining Top 25 markets are unchanged from February.
    • Recovery by the end of 2022: Two markets will be fully recovered by the end of 2022: Phoenix and Tampa. This remains unchanged from the February forecast. Four markets will be above 80 percent recovery. Nashville shifted into this category with this forecast. Sixteen markets will be between 50 and 80 percent recovery. Only Detroit, Oahu, and Chicago are forecasted to be less than 50 percent recovered by the end of 2022. Chicago shifted into this category while Norfolk moved into the 50-80 percent category.
    • Significant recovery in 2023:  Seven markets will achieve 100 percent or greater recovery including Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, Dallas, Nashville, Washington, and Anaheim. Eight will reach 90 percent or better recovery. Seven will fall between 75 and 90 percent recovery. Finally, Denver, Oahu, and Detroit will fall below 75 percent recovery.
    • Closer to normal in 2024: 21 of the 25 markets will achieve 100 percent or greater recovery by 2024. Atlanta, Denver, and Chicago will achieve 90 or better percent recovery. Detroit is anticipated to be below 75 percent recovery.

About the MRF and associated MRF25: The MRF demonstrates projected industry recovery patterns and is based on Knowland’s proprietary data and regression models leveraging almost 20 million global events over the last 15 years. The MRF25 was added in February 2022 to provide the capability to search industry recovery patterns for the Top 25 U.S. Markets. The forecast uses a natural recovery model, assuming historic seasonal patterns without major market disruption, to index the recapture of meeting activity compared to baseline levels from 2019. By comparing past data to evolving data trends, hoteliers can better understand market-relevant changes–and their implications–as individual markets move into 2022 and beyond.