2020 Outlook Improves for North American Hoteliers
TravelClick, an Amadeus company, released new data from the company’s January North American Hospitality Review (NAHR). According to the data, committed occupancy for the first quarter of 2020 through the fourth quarter of 2020 is up 2.0% compared to a year ago. Average daily rate (ADR) is up 2.1% based on reservations currently on the books for 2020. Group ADR and transient segment ADR are both up at 3.4% and 1.5% respectively, compared to the previous year. Transient business ADR is up 2.2% and transient leisure ADR is also growing by 1.5%.
Additionally, 18 of the top 25 North American markets are showing an increase in bookings compared to one month ago. Early projections for the group sales segment is particularly strong, with a 2.4% increase in committed room nights compared to the same time last year.
“January’s twelve-month outlook of 2% committed occupancy growth is encouraging and shows improvement from last month’s increase of 1.4%,” explains John Hach, Senior Industry Analyst, TravelClick. “A sizable portion of this increase is related to strong group bookings occurring in the second and third quarters of this year.”
Twelve-Month Outlook (Q1 2020 – Q4 2020)
For the next 12 months (January 2020 – December 2020), transient bookings are up 1.1% year-over-year, and ADR for this segment is up at 1.5% compared to the previous year. When broken down further, the transient leisure (discount, qualified and wholesale) segment is up 4.0% in bookings, with ADR increasing 1.5%. Additionally, the transient business (negotiated and retail) segment is down -2.4% in bookings, although ADR is up 2.2%. Lastly, group bookings are up 2.4% in committed room nights* over the same time last year, and ADR is up 3.4%.
“Although the twelve-month outlook is encouraging, there are stronger than anticipated headwinds occurring in the transient business segment that hoteliers need to locally address,” adds Hach. “Success at the local level requires leveraging advanced business intelligence solutions, coupled with online and GDS marketing strategies to capture and convert available transient demand, particularly with leisure travelers. As the current transient demand challenges are likely to continue throughout the first quarter, it is imperative hoteliers also revisit and analyze their competitors, especially regarding qualified rate offerings and full pattern length of stay discounts.”
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Q1 2020 |
ADR |
Reserved Occupancy |
RevPAR |
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All Travel Segments (Group and Transient) |
1.5% |
-0.7% |
0.7% |
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Group Segment Only |
2.6% |
-1.0% |
1.6% |
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Transient Segment Only (Business and Leisure) |
0.9% |
-0.6% |
0.3% |
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Transient Business Travel Only |
1.7% |
-4.6% |
-3.0% |
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Transient Leisure Travel Only |
1.0% |
3.2% |
4.2% |
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Q2 2020 |
ADR |
Committed Occupancy |
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All Travel Segments (Group and Transient) |
1.6% |
3.0% |
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Group Segment Only |
3.1% |
3.3% |
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Transient Segment Only (Business and Leisure) |
1.2% |
1.4% |
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Transient Business Travel Only |
1.5% |
0.0% |
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Transient Leisure Travel Only |
1.5% |
3.1% |
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The January NAHR looks at group sales commitments and individual reservations in the 25 major North American markets for hotel stays that are booked by January 1, 2020 for the period of January 2020 – December 2020.
*Committed Occupancy – (Transient rooms reserved + group rooms committed) / capacity
The first quarter combines forward-looking data (January – March).